. >> tom: but there is that dark cloud of the fiscal cliff. you mentioned it earlier, businesses planning for consumer confidence to go off that cliff if we go off it as a country. do you not agree with that prospect? >> well, no. i believe it will -- if nothing happens and there is no agreement, i think there will be a mild, kind of technical recession in the first half of next year. maybe a 1% decline contraction for both the firstnd second quarter. but i don't think it will do very much fundamental damage underneath that. it will kind of reduce the base from which spending grows, but once that base is down slightly, i think the growth will continue. >> tom: real quick, is it going to continue for housing and autos, do you think? >> yes. those are the two key things that in the past have really driven recoveries. they haven't for the last three years because housing was part of the crisis, and consumers didn't want to borrow to buy cars. but now i think that is coming back. and that is going to drive the recovery, more like what we're used t